Model-Fusion-Based Online Glucose Concentration Predictions in People with Type 1 Diabetes.

Accurate predictions of glucose concentrations are necessary to develop an artificial pancreas (AP) system for people with type 1 diabetes (T1D). In this work, a novel glucose forecasting paradigm based on a model fusion strategy is developed to accurately characterize the variability and transient dynamics of glycemic measurements. To this end, four different adaptive filters and a fusion mechanism are proposed for use in the online prediction of future glucose trajectories. The filter fusion mechanism is developed based on various prediction performance indexes to guide the overall output of the forecasting paradigm. The efficiency of the proposed model fusion based forecasting method is evaluated using simulated and clinical datasets, and the results demonstrate the capability and prediction accuracy of the data-based fusion filters, especially in the case of limited data availability. The model fusion framework may be used in the development of an AP system for glucose regulation in patients with T1D.

Hypoglycemia Detection and Carbohydrate Suggestion in an Artificial Pancreas.

Fear of hypoglycemia is a major concern for many patients with type 1 diabetes and affects patient decisions for use of an artificial pancreas system. We propose an alternative way for prevention of hypoglycemia by issuing predictive hypoglycemia alarms and encouraging patients to consume carbohydrates in a timely manner. The algorithm has been tested on 6 subjects (3 males and 3 females, age 24.2 ± 4.5 years, weight 79.2 ± 16.2 kg, height 172.7 ± 9.4 cm, HbA1C 7.3 ± 0.48%, duration of diabetes 209.2 ± 87.9 months) over 3-day closed-loop clinical experiments as part of a multivariable artificial pancreas control system. Over 6 three-day clinical experiments, there were only 5 real hypoglycemia episodes, of which only 1 hypoglycemia episode occurred due to being missed by the proposed algorithm. The average hypoglycemia alarms per day and per subject was 3. Average glucose value when the first alarms were triggered was recorded to be 117 ± 30.6 mg/dl. Average carbohydrate consumption per alarm was 14 ± 7.8 grams. Our results have shown that most low glucose concentrations can be predicted in advance and the glucose levels can be raised back to the desired levels by consuming an appropriate amount of carbohydrate. The proposed algorithm is able to prevent most hypoglycemic events by suggesting appropriate levels of carbohydrate consumption before the actual occurrence of hypoglycemia.

Impact of bile duct obstruction on hepatic E. coli infection: role of IL-10.

Biliary obstruction in the setting of hepatic bacterial infection has great morbidity and mortality. We developed a novel murine model to examine the effect of biliary obstruction on the clearance of hepatic Escherichia coli infection. This model may allow us to test the hypothesis that biliary obstruction itself adversely affects clearance of hepatic infections even if the bacteria are introduced into the liver by a nonbiliary route. We ligated the bile ducts of C57BL/6 mice on days -1, 0, or +1, relative to a day 0 portal venous injection of E. coli. We monitored survival, hepatic bacterial growth, pathology, and IL-10 protein levels. The role of IL-10 in this model was further examined using IL-10 knockout mice. Mice with bile duct ligation at day +1 or 0, relative to portal venous infection at day 0, had decreased survival compared with mice with only portal venous infection. The impaired survival was associated with greater hepatic bacterial growth, hepatic necrosis, and increased production of IL-10. Interestingly, the transgenic knockout of IL-10 resulted in impaired survival in mice with bile duct ligation and portal venous infection. Biliary obstruction had a dramatic detrimental effect on hepatic clearance of portal venous E. coli infection. This impaired clearance is associated with increased IL-10 production. However, transgenic knockout of IL-10 increased mortality after hepatic infection.

Infection by gram-negative organisms via the biliary route results in greater mortality than portal venous infection.

Cholangitis requires bile duct obstruction and infection. Patients with cholangitis are often more affected than those with infections that reach the liver through the portal vein. We will attempt to study the influences of (i) route of entry and (ii) presence of bile duct obstruction on hepatic infection. C57BL/6 mice received injections of Escherichia coli or lipopolysaccharide into the obstructed bile duct or portal vein and were monitored for survival. Livers were assayed for bacteria, and cytokine mRNA was measured. In order to examine the effect of biliary obstruction on hepatic infection, animals were subjected to bile duct ligation 1 day prior to portal vein injection and were monitored for survival. The 50% lethal dose (LD(50)) for E. coli injected into the bile duct was 50 CFU/animal; the LD(50) for E. coli injected into the portal vein was 5 x 10(7) CFU/animal. Initial hepatic delivery of bacteria was equivalent 1 h after injection into the bile duct or portal vein. However, by 24 h, a significantly greater amount of bacteria was recovered from the livers of the bile duct-injected group. Interleukin 10 (IL-10) and IL-1RA mRNA was expressed at greater levels in the bile duct-injected group. Prior bile duct ligation followed by portal vein injection resulted in a higher incidence of death than when sham operation was performed prior to portal vein injection. Our data suggest that the increased mortality from cholangitis, compared with that from other hepatic infections, is related to the different route of delivery of pathogen and the maladaptive response (possibly involving IL-10 and IL-1RA) to biliary obstruction itself.